North Africa and the Decline of Empire

This is a spontaneous article in light of the speed of current events. I have some ideas regarding the decline of empire as history unfolds.

In Egypt, Mubarak stepped down yesterday. The Pentagon has strong ties with the head of the Egyptian Army, but Mubarak and the US may have fallen out (as his last speech suggests). The US isn’t paying for the sustainability of the oppressive Egyptian system (government cuts are generally en vogue as the State desperaly tries to sustain itself). The Revolution is yet to be substantiated by the withdrawal/demise of the 30 year Regime – regardless of Mubarak and Suleiman who can both be replaced with other Regime members. Mubarak himself is lucky considering his delusional, selfish and suicidal speech precursing his resignation. My conspiratorial perspective is that the US found it cheaper to direct the fallout of the food crisis to Egypt rather than to send in the Military to hang the rebellious puppet. What the Pentagon didn’t need is a nationalist rally cry to the region’s military condemning foreign intervention.

Tunisia is in legal limbo. The head of Tunisia’s Constitutional Court and the Prime Minister are disputing the presidency following Ben Ali and his upset wife legging it with 1.5 tonnes of gold. Tunisia, being the precursor to the Egyptian uprising, was similarly subject to a desperate food situation. We knew about food riots in Egypt 2 years ago, it has quite obviously reached breaking point, and the critical masses are being reached now accross North Africa.

Fair play to Max and Stacy and Zero Hedge for picking up on the emerging unrest in Algeria. The mainstream have been waffling about Egypt sparking an uprising across the Arab World suggesting Jordan, Yemen, West Bank and more Middle East based areas. But the reality is this is a North African situation. Egypt has the biggest working class in the region and the extreme left has been expecting the uprising for a couple of years now, as revealed at Marxism 2008.

Having lived in France for 10 years, I am well aware of the tension regarding Algeria. France has a strong extreme-right population. The French are pretty political people anyway. But unlike the UK, the National Front has always been mainstream there. The general public in France is also quite in the dark with regard to the poverty in it’s colonies (domtoms, former colonies and whatever) and those who made it over to France have met an unsympathetic French populace. I remember when Hip Hop in France was demonised in the 90s as the Police raided and closed night clubs and the headlines were accompanied with racist propaganda. Their have been many riots in the ghettos in recent years and there have been many terrorist attacks in Paris. When I studied in Reims 5 years ago I was advised that the Croix Rouge government housing project was a no go zone. This is not going to be pretty.

The situations across North Africa, while resulting from a desperate food situation, are all very different in other regards. Although the West celebrated Egypt’s uprising, Algeria will alter the global political perspective. The French are now on the spot and will likely buck buck the trend. I expect an increase in anti-Algerian sentiment. And there are millions of Algerians in France.

In Egypt we can probably expect no change regarding the border with West Bank military relations with Israel. And possibly not with America either. Despite suffering from a deep recession, the US intends to sustain it’s global military domination as hinted on by Walter Russell Mead and Fareed Zakaria during their 2009 talks at LSE (I was in the audience).

But what we are seeing may undermine these surviving war machines. The food crisis in North Africa is the first valve to burst in the decline of empire, armed forces and all. The global financial system, fiat currencies, low interest rates and all, is collapsing. While I’m not one to follow 2012 armageddon theories, I do believe this could be the beginning of the long fall of Rome. And right wing nationalist death throes seem imminent. On the plus side at least the North African movement is mostly secular. That and the revolution in Egypt was leaderless.

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